Trump’s “Stop the Steal”, presumably, had something to do with a flawed election. Mail-in ballots were frequently cited as a problem, but no evidence was presented that the ballots were used in any system systemically corrupt way. We were told that ballots were mis-counted, but the ballots were counted and recounted (and recounted again). A hand full of questionable ballots were found, but literally a handful and not enough to make any difference in any city, county or state. And yet, this went on for months.
A large part of the problem seems to be that the Trump team had little knowledge of how an election works. “We saw suitcases appear that were filled with thousands of Ballots!” appeared to Trumpists to be cheating. Rather than asking for explanations, the Trump team filed (and lost) 86 lawsuits. Claims rejected in one lawsuit were just repeated in the next suit. Why were ballots in suitcases? Because ballots are filled out in one location and counted in another; election officials (in Georgia) have been using suitcases to store and move ballots for years! Other “irregularities” had good reasons or were always part of the process and not some change in 2020.
But this is nothing new for Trumpists. In 2020, Trump lost and said that the election was rigged. In 2016 Trump WON… and said that the election was rigged. Because he didn’t win by enough votes! Months earlier, in the Iowa Caucuses, Ted Cruz beat Donald Trump. Trump’s reaction? That’s right… Trump claimed that the primaries were rigged and he won. By a lot! According to Trump, “Ted Cruz didn’t win Iowa, he stole it… Based on the fraud committed by Senator Ted Cruz during the Iowa caucus, either a new election should take place or Cruz results nullified”. Cruz… who is now a rabid supporter of Stop the Steal… said,”(When Trump loses)… he blames everybody else. It’s never Donald’s fault“.
Donald Trump’s message is simple, clear, and consistent. No election that Trump loses can ever be fair! Evidence of fraud? Well, Trump lost… what more evidence do you need? However, other Republicans are making a very different argument.
Do Mail-Ins Matter?: 20% of votes in 2016 were cast by mail-in or electronic ballot, yet this wasn’t an issue for Republicans. Instead, the issue was limiting who can vote. Trump said that there were millions of illegal votes (or votes that should have gone to him). Republicans wanted new processes to ensure that only legitimate votes were counted. Following a long-standing tradition, Republicans failed to show any evidence of widespread voter fraud. Trump was just carrying on a tradition of accusations without evidence.
I Spy with My Little Eye: Occasionally, Republicans occasionally discuss a less explosive different issue. Voter demographics. The 1980 election of Ronald Reagan was significant in many ways. For example, Southern Democratic conservatives (formerly called “Dixicrats”) switched parties. Southern conservatives are now mostly conservative Republicans. Another change was the rise of computer analytics. Now you could micro-target very specific populations, perform a deeper analysis of data, and manage massive databases of followers. This deep insight allowed Republicans to flip more Democrats and independents. It also showed that some numbers were turning against them.
The white majority in America was shrinking. Since the Jim Crow days, the South was famous for voter suppression. But all that was now in the past. Now, the conservative South was interested in voter Verification! To stop … ahhh… illegitimate voters. And Gerimandering, the traditional art of arranging maps for voter districts so that you can favor your political party. This complex process was supercharged by computer analytics. Changing district maps can guarantee victory, even when your party is shrinking. Both parties have pulled all sorts of political tricks over the years, but the shrinking of white America has made election manipulation and suppression a primary tool for Republican victories.
The Democratic Response: Democrats have been fighting their own voter battle… for expanded voter registration. The Constitution guarantees voting rights for all citizens over 18 years of age. In practice, though, this meant guranteeing the voting rights of wealthy, land-owning, white men. From 1776 until 1920, voting was illegal for more than half of the “eligible” population. In 1920 the last and largest population… women… were finally allowed to vote. Before that, an attempt by a woman to enter a voting place and cast a vote was a criminal offense. Still, it toom nearly 60 years for women to vote as often as men. Even then, it was not clear if women voted independently, or if male members of the family dictated how they voted.
Democrats want to reduce barriers to voting. Simplified voter registration, no ID requirements, and improved voting access for the poor and minorities. Not so coincidentally, Democrats are aware that high voter turnouts ensure more Democratic victories. Democrats are just as incentivized as Republicans to tweak election rules. But if both parties are fighting over who votes, this creates a middle ground of potentially “disenfranchised voters”. Who are they? Exactly who inhabits this contested territory?
The Election: Republicans are focused on “traditional” voters, or if you prefer, “older, wealthier, white males. Is this stereotype? Just look at a Republican rally. A Trump rally, diversity falls even lower. The Republican party is more evangelical, more rural, and less college-educated than Democrats. Hispanic voters lean towards the Democrats, but black voters overwhelmingly vote for Democrats. Over the past few decades, with the exception of Obama elections, a lot of ink has been used to write about disaffected non-white voters. Energized minority voters were a big part of Obama’s victories.
Coincidentally, after Obama’s victories, the Republican party went into overdrive to protect America from fake votes. More requirements for voter ID’s, higher fees for ID processing, even placing registration facilities in just a few locations. For improved… uhhh… security. In Mississipi, Missouri, Oklahoma, South Dakota, and a few other states you need a Notary Public to witness the ballot. Well, that certainly makes it more secure. Of course, some suspicious individuals might assume that these policies are designed to exclude black and Hispanic voters.
Stop Which Steal?: Wow. If Republicans are trying to exclude voters who don’t traditionally vote for Republicans, is the “Stop The Steal” campaign really about Trumpists and Republicans stealing the election? Maybe. Consider which states Stop the Steal was most active, Pennsylvania and Georgia. More importantly, this campaign was focused on ballots in two cities, Philadelphia and Atlanta.
Georgia’s residents are predominantly (60.2%) white, but Atlanta is predominantly (51%) black. What about Pennsylvania? The state is predominantly white (81.6%). Just 12.0% of residents are black. While black residents are not the majority in Philadelphia, they are 43.6% of the population. This is not looking like a coincidence. Rather than “Stop the Steal”, is a better name for this campaign, “Stop Black People From Voting”? Republicans claim that this is just another coincidence, but it is getting harder and harder to believe.
Who Will Be Excluded Next: The Trump Presidency may have just as much impact on voter choices as the Regan Presidency. After the 2nd Trump Impeachment, and upcoming Trump lawsuits, indictments, and court hearings, the Republican party will either reject Trumpism, or embrace it more tightly. Possibly both. First-time voters, traditional Republicans, and others could fracture the Republican party.
Consider just Republican women. Women are more than 51% of the vote and are traditionally more liberal, and now vote in larger numbers than men. If Republicans continue to rely on exclusion as a tool for winning elections, will they be able to change how women vote, or will they find ways to repress their votes? Over the next 4 years, the behavior of the Republican party will tell us.
What do you think? Will American politics stay divisive? Or will the pandemic and other problems be enough to unite America? Let’s hear from you!