The discussions about Global Climate Change (GCC) can be very confusing. You have a lot of people who are very upset, but about very different issues. The key issue about GCC is indeed the rise in global temperature, about the world becoming warmer and the resulting rise in the oceans. But is the question of climate change truly settled? Is there really anything to argue over?
It comes down to just a few basic questions. First, “Is the climate actually changing (is it getting warmer or colder in specific locations)”, the answer is an unequivocal, “Yes.” “Is the change global (is the entire world climate changing)?” Here too the answer is an absolute, “Yes.” “Are human beings responsible for the change?” Once again, “Yes.” And finally, “Can we do anything about it?” Let’s leave this last question open for the moment.
I could recite a long list of scientists, boards of experts, organizations, and scientific publications that agree that climate change is real. They not only agree, but they agree why, how fast, and so on. Most importantly they can predict… with increasing accuracy… what will happen in the future. Not 1,000 years in the future, but next year or the year after. And we know that they are right because their predictions have all come true.
If you think a lot is still open to discussion, take a look at the film, “An Inconvenient Truth”, from 2015. This documentary had everything that climate deniers hate. It said GCC was real, it blamed big oil and coal, it showed retreating ice, flooded homes, sad-looking polar bears… and was narrated by liberal former Vice-President, Al Gore.
What did the documentary predict? The earth is getting warmer (every year since then the earth got warmer), the weather is getting wilder (we’ve had a decade of the worst storms in history), the seas will rise (they did, the rise can be measured), and polar ice caps will shrink (they have).
Deniers reacted with, “Climate change is a lie.” Later, “The facts may be true, but the interpretation is wrong!” Still later, “The weather may be changing, it always changes… this is nothing new.” Most importantly, back then there were still a few credible deniers. Almost every single one has over to the “climate believer” camp. But a few still say, “I don’t believe you!”
We should expect that. 4% of 18-24-year-olds in America believe that the earth is flat. Really! They not only believe that the earth is flat (like a plate) and not a globe, they believe that most of our science is a lie (otherwise we would find out the world is flat) and scientists & governments around the world have hidden this from us for the last century. The anti-vaccine movement believes that (some or all) vaccines are a form of poison. Up to 10% of Americans believe that at least the measles vaccine is dangerous. Pick your favorite crank theory, and there is a group that supports that theory.
But this too, we should expect. When we hear something that we don’t want to hear, or that could negatively impact our lives, we don’t want to believe it. There is a well-known concept called “the stages of grief”. Some use 5 stages, some use 7. The shorter version goes… Denial, Anger, Bargaining, Depression, Acceptance.
In the early days, deniers were more like dismissers. They barely acknowledged that climate change scientists existed or that they were saying anything. Big corporations thought of them as lunatics. But as the evidence grew, and the impact of GCC became more obvious, the lunatics started to look… dangerous. Deniers started to see them as a threat to jobs and profits.
Timber jobs would be cut if we need trees to clean our air. If we limit carbon in the air, the profits of oil companies are threatened. Flooding in Florida will lower real estate prices, reduce development, and scare away vacationers. If admitting to climate change means losing money, losing your job, or losing your house, you tend to minimize or deny climate change.
Oil companies have a lot of reasons to deny GCC. But insurance companies are paying more every year for flooded properties. They have increased the cost of hurricane and flood insurance, and no longer insure certain properties. And… they are speaking out about climate change. The construction industry is changing, altering building practices to allow for changing weather conditions. Airlines have enough trouble today getting planes off the ground on time. Airlines now acknowledge that GCC impacts their operations.. it takes more fuel to fly in warmer air, storms are grounding more flights, and coastal airports face a greater risk of flooding.
Even the US military is planning for a change in the weather. In the very near future, rising sea levels will make some naval ports unusable. Ships will have fewer days at sea, due to increased storms. Planes will have fewer days that they can safely fly. Even ground troops cannot act effectively if their entire logistics systems are bogged down by floods and inclement weather.
If we go back to our stages of grief, we should be able to predict what comes after “denial”. That’s “anger”. I think we’ve seen quite a bit of that. Politicians and lobbyists seem stuck at that stage. Meanwhile, big industry has moved on to Bargaining.
As we discussed, the most powerful and vocal deniers in the world used to be big oil and coal companies. The biggest of the big, Exxon Mobile, sent a letter to the White House in 2017. Here is just one section of that letter.
“As a global issue, addressing the risks of climate change requires broad-based, practical solutions around the world. At ExxonMobil, we are working to help create the scientific, technological, and engineering solutions that the risks of climate change will require. The Paris Agreement recognizes the important role of “carbon sinks” in helping manage greenhouse gasses globally. ExxonMobil believes that broad-based deployment of cost-effective carbon capture and storage (CCS) holds significant potential, and is one of the most important next-generation low-greenhouse gas emission technologies.”
WOW! Two years ago ExxonMobile, the face of climate denial, admitted that CCG is real, that the amount of carbon in the air is important, that humans (including humans at ExxonMobile) are caused the change, and that there are things that human beings can do to slow or stop GCC. Let me repeat, WOW!
ExxonMobile is as mainstream as a big oil can get! Over at Saudi Aramco, the world’s largest oil company, their website states, “We believe the key to combating climate change is to focus on reducing emissions as well as implementing abatement measures such as natural sinks that absorb CO2.” Very similar to Exxon Mobile. In fact, Saudi Aramco has built the world’s largest solar power plant and is heavily investing in renewable resources. There are similar signs of positive movement at other big oil companies.
At the beginning of this article, we asked… but did not answer… “Can we do anything about GCC?” the answer, certainly the answer from big oil is, “ABSOLUTELY!”
That answer gives rise to another question. You could interpret the statements from big oil as their acceptance that Global Climate Change is real and poses a true danger to the world. Yet, their solution is not to reduce oil use, it is to add other massive technologies so that we can continue to consume oil. Does that mean that they have reached stage 5 (Acceptance) or are they still at stage 3 (Bargaining)?
Either they are right and new technologies will allow us to continue using oil, or “clean coal” and “clean oil” are just a temporary bargaining chip to stop the focus on lowering our dependence on oil. The debate over the reality of Global Climate change may be over, but the debate over what comes next is just beginning!
What do you think? Will new technologies solve the problem of Climate change, or do we need to make significant changes in how we live? Let us know!